Human level AI is always 20 years in the future


Steven Pinker highlighted this study which tracks the predictions of when human level AI (artificial intelligence) will be achieved.  According to the paper, the predictions cluster around predicting that it will be achieved in 15-25 years, and they have been doing so for the last 60 or so years.  The paper also notes that expert predictions have fared no better than non-expert predictions, and actually cluster the same way.

None of this should be too surprising.  Most AI predictions are made by experts in computing technologies, but computer experts are not human mind experts.  Indeed, the level of expertise that exists for computing technology simply doesn’t exist yet for the human brain.  So any predictions made comparing the two should be suspect.  And the people who know the most about the brain, neuroscientists, speak in terms of a century before they’ll know as much about its working as we know about…

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